Welcome to Radio 2020, the blog

Remember 1994? From my point of view, it seems like it was only a few short years ago. But the decisions that were made then shaped the radio landscape we know in 2007: The satellite networks were developing their business plans. Broadcasters were deciding which form of digital broadcasting to support (Eureka? IBOC?). Early experiments with structures like LMAs were precursors of consolidation. And so forth.

In just a similarly few years from now, the year 2020 is going to be here. What do we know or reasonably suspect radio is going to be like then?

Well, here's what I think is starting to become clear:

• Internet radio will be available on most personal communication devices (i.e., cell phones, PDAs, portable music players).
  
  
• AM/FM simulcasts will be available on the web but not very popular. (Analogy: Some movies are simply plays performed in front of a camera. But not many.)
  
  
• Internet radio will be available in the car dashboard (probably using a simple touch-screen interface, riding along on the car's existing telematics systems).
  
  
• HD Radio will be dead or at best limping along (kind of like AM stereo is in 2007). (It won't be able to "cross the chasm." Significant numbers of listeners won't be interested unless broadcasters across the dial drop their analog signals and broadcast eight HD channels per frequency instead; broadcasters won't do that unless HD is already wildly popular. Chicken/egg.)
  
  
• The big winners will include multichannel brands of Internet radio that offer some form of interactivity and personalization (i.e., a customized stream for each listener). Each of these will be distinguished by its unique user interface rather than by musical genre. (Early indicators of this trend include LAUNCHcast, Pandora, Last.fm, and I like to think AccuRadio.)
  
  
• Because there's always an opportunity for specialists, in addition to the multichannel brands, there will be one or two nationally- (or globally-) dominant brands in each of the important musical genres -- jazz, classical, hit music, country, indie rock, Broadway, pop standards, Sixties-oldies, comedy, blues, and so forth. Each of these will be much smaller than the big multichannel brands, but not insignificant.
  
  
• Many of these leading brands will be owned by a new set of competitors rather than today's radio broadcasters -- e.g., Microsoft, Google, CBS (but not CBS Radio), various entrepreneurs, etc. Some of these brands, on the other hand, will be owned by today's broadcast groups.

The purpose of this blog is to argue for some ownership of these new Internet-only brands by broadcasters. After all, this is where all the growth in audience is going to be and this is where all the growth in advertising spending is going to be.

Broadcasters will be increasingly marginalized by 2020 if they ignore these opportunties today.